From Margins to Mainstream: The Growing Power of the Hispanic Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election
Introduction
In an election defined by shifting demographics and evolving priorities, the 2024 presidential race proved that the Hispanic vote is no longer underestimated; instead, it proved to be a decisive force for shaping the future of American Politics. An article from Resonate, “The Shifting Influence of the Hispanic Vote in the 2024 Election,” highlights how the 2024 U.S. presidential election underscored the growing influence of Hispanic voters. The Hispanic demographic has expanded significantly over the past decade due to population growth and increased voter registration rates. A Reuters article, "Trump’s return to power fueled by Hispanic, working-class voter support," highlights how Hispanic voters, making up nearly 14% of the electorate with over 34 million eligible voters, play a pivotal role in shaping election outcomes. In the lead-up to the 2024 election, candidates from both major political parties crafted policies aimed at addressing issues critical to Hispanic communities, including immigration, the economy, and healthcare. The election outcome revealed shifts in voter alignments and underscored the influence of Hispanic voters in battleground states. This article examines how Hispanic voter turnout and their preferences on immigration, economic issues, and healthcare shaped the 2024 presidential election.
Immigration and its influence on Hispanic Voting Behavior
Immigration has long been a cornerstone issue for Hispanic voters, many of whom have personal or familial ties to immigration. Policies that impact pathways to citizenship, border security, and protections for undocumented individuals resonate deeply within Hispanic communities. In 2024, the candidates presented contrasting visions on the issue. Former President Donald Trump championed stricter border enforcement and the continuation of policies such as Title 42 expulsions, a public health law invoked during the pandemic which allowed U.S. authorities to expel migrants at the border without a request for asylum citing the need to prevent the spread of disease. Trump appealed to voters by prioritizing national security and reducing illegal border crossings. His rhetoric also highlighted his administration’s efforts to build physical barriers and deport undocumented immigrants. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris emphasized humane immigration reform, advocating for expanded pathways to citizenship, protections for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, and an overhaul of detention practices. Harris appealed to Hispanic voters who viewed immigration through the lens of fairness and opportunity, energizing younger demographics in urban centers. The polling data shown below from a CNN ballot tracker indicated that while many Hispanic voters valued humane immigration policies, others showed growing support for stricter enforcement due to concerns about border control.
CNN Poll, November 25, 2024
This chart, filtered by Latino voters, demonstrates a divide in views on immigration policy between supporters of Harris and Trump. While 71% of Harris supporters favor offering undocumented immigrants a chance at legal status, 87% of Trump supporters advocate for deportation, reflecting their respective policy platforms on human reform versus strict enforcement. This split highlights the Latino community’s nuanced perspectives, balancing cultural ties to immigration with concerns about border control and national security. For example, in states like Texas with large Hispanic populations, Republican messaging emphasizing border control resonates with working-class voters concerned about economic stability and safety. A study from AS/COA stated, “A diverse demographic with the second-fastest growth rate among voting blocs, Latinos may prove crucial in deciding presidential and legislative races in several states, especially large states like California, Florida, and Texas…” In a graph shown by AS/COA, it is shown that 60% of Latino voters trust that Harris will facilitate a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented migrants while 44% of Latino voters trust that Trump will address border security at the southern border. This is noted as a marked increase in support for Trump, driven by Hispanic voters who believed stricter immigration policies could safeguard their communities economically and socially. Meanwhile, a pro-immigration reform stance was particularly effective among younger Hispanic voters and college-educated individuals. A Reuters article, “Hispanic voters give Harris edge on healthcare climate” by Lange, J., & Erickson, B. demonstrated a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was conducted on August 21st-28th, stating “... the top issues for Hispanic registered voters ahead of the Nov. % election largely tracks those of the country at large with the economy, immigration, healthcare and climate change standing out as the group’s top priorities.” This poll highlights that Hispanic registered voters prioritize issues that align closely with the broader national electorate’s concerns. This indicated that whole Hispanic voters have unique perspectives shaped by their experiences. This poll also showed that focus on protecting immigrant families and expanding opportunities aligned with the aspirations of many urban Hispanic voters, resulting in higher turnout in key battleground states.
Economic Issues as a Driver of Hispanic Voter Preference
While immigration has historically been pivotal, the 2024 election highlighted the increasing salience of economic concerns among Hispanic voters. Job security, wage growth, and inflation topped Hispanic voters' priorities, reflecting national trends. Disproportionately impacted by economic inequalities worsened by COVID-19, Hispanic communities emphasized policies offering tangible economic benefits. A September 2024 LBJ School study revealed a shift in priorities toward healthcare and the economy, moving away from the immigration focus of previous election cycles. The study mentioned, “Latino voters in the United States are now more driven by healthcare and economic issues than immigration, marking a major shift in political priorities over the past three decades…This trend and a decrease in the importance of immigration, particularly among younger generations, showcase the changing priorities within this key voting demographic.” This shift underscored the importance of addressing pocketbook issues to capture Hispanic votes. The candidates' economic platforms reflected their differing philosophies. Trump focused on reducing taxes, deregulating industries, and boosting domestic manufacturing. His “America First” agenda, centered on curbing inflation and supporting small businesses, resonated strongly with many working-class Hispanic voters.Hispanic entrepreneurs, a demographic that has seen substantial growth in recent years, found Trump’s promises to cut red tape and foster a pro-business environment particularly appealing. In contrast, Harris proposed a minimum wage, expanded access to affordable housing, and implemented tax credits for working families. The “Policy Book: Economic Opportunity” written by Kamala Harris’s campaign team states, “The Vice President’s plan to cut taxes for middle-class families and lower-income families with this expansion of the Child Tax Credit is backed by significant economic evidence. Researchers have found that expanding the Child Tax Credit returns as much as $15 to society for every $1 investment through improvements in children’s health, education, and future earnings.” The Vice President’s proposed Child Tax Credit expansion emphasizes immediate financial relief for middle and lower-income families and long-term societal benefits. Backed by research, the policy highlights how such investments can yield significant returns by improving children’s health, education, and economic opportunities. This book also addresses systematic economic inequities and uplifts lower-income households, which constitute a considerable portion of the Hispanic electorate. Her focus on policies targeting income inequality resonated in big states like California, where economic equity is a pressing concern. A Unidos US report stated, “Concerns about personal financial circumstances and ongoing stressful economic experiences underscore the feelings of pessimism across demographic groups. Overall, 56% of Latino voters believe things in the U.S. are going on the wrong track. Feelings about the direction of the U.S. track along partisan lines: 44% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and 82% of Republicans believe the country is on the wrong track.” This citation reveals that financial insecurity drove a substantial number of Hispanic voters toward Trump, reflecting a prioritization of immediate economic relief over broader equity-focused measures. Social media played a significant role in the weeks leading up to the upcoming election, shaping how people perceive the future of our country’s economy. CBSNews showcases this by disclosing the following information,
“President-elect Donald Trump in his first term as president sent out two stimulus checks to millions of Americans during the pandemic, part of the federal government’s goal of keeping consumers financially afloat during the crisis. Now, some social media posts are claiming that Trump, once he takes office next year, may issue another check– a likelihood that experts say is extremely slim. Posts on Tiktok are suggesting Trump might issue another round of checks, while on X, some users are questioning if they’re in line for a payment.”
Social media can amplify speculative claims about political actions, often without substantiated evidence. It demonstrated how narratives, such as Trump potentially issuing a new stimulus check, gain traction online despite experts deeming such claims unlikely. Conversely, Harris’s proposals appealed to younger, progressive voters and those in urban areas, creating a generational and geographic divide within the Hispanic electorate.
CNN Poll, November 25, 2024
The polls shown above conducted by CNN support these findings, Hispanic voters who perceived the economy as their top concern were more likely to vote Republican, while those who prioritized income inequality leaned Democratic. This voting behavior was very evident in swing states, where both candidates showcased this.
Healthcare Concerns and Hispanic Voter Priorities
Access to affordable healthcare remains a critical issue for Hispanic communities, who face higher rates of uninsured individuals and health disparities compared to other demographics. Hispanic voters are more likely to struggle with affordability and access to preventative care, making healthcare a pivotal issue in their electoral decision-making. The 2024 election showed the growing importance of healthcare alongside economic concerns. As noted by the Pew Research Center,
“When it comes to issues that are very important to their vote this year, 85% of Latino registered voters say the economy matters most among the 10 issues included in the survey. Following the economy are the issues of health care (71%), violent crime (62%), and gun policy (62%) and immigration (59%).”
This poll highlights healthcare as a top priority for Hispanic voters, especially in urban areas and states with high uninsured rates, marking a shift from previous cycles where immigration was prioritized. Harris campaigned on expanding the Affordable Care Act (ACA), focusing on initiatives to lower prescription drug costs and increase access to preventive care. Her platform emphasized addressing disparities in healthcare access among low-income and minority populations. Harris framed healthcare as both an economic and moral issue, arguing that accessible healthcare was essential to reducing poverty and improving quality of life. An article by the University of Texas mentions this, “The debate over the Affordable Care Act, the very rapid increase in health care costs, and the fact that Latinos have the lowest rate of insurance coverage in the country have made the issue more salient. Generational status mattered.” Harris’s campaign focus on expanding the Affordable Care Act and reducing healthcare disparities resonated with Latino voters, who face the lowest insurance coverage rates in the country. By framing healthcare as a moral and economic issue, her platform addressed a critical priority for a demographic heavily impacted by rising costs and limited access. In contrast, Trump’s messaging on deregulation appealed to middle-class Hispanic voters in Florida. These voters often expressed concerns about the sustainability of government-funded programs and preferred market-driven solutions that promised broader choices and reduced bureaucracy.
Social Media’s Role in Shaping Election Narratives
Social media played a significant role in the weeks leading up to the upcoming election, shaping how people perceive the future of our country’s economy. CBSNews showcases this through the aforementioned quote:
“President-elect Donald Trump in his first term as president sent out two stimulus checks to millions of Americans during the pandemic, part of the federal government’s goal of keeping consumers financially afloat during the crisis. Now, some social media posts are claiming that Trump, once he takes office next year, may issue another check– a likelihood that experts say is extremely slim. Posts on Tiktok are suggesting Trump might issue another round of checks, while on X, some users are questioning if they’re in line for a payment.”
Social media can amplify speculative claims about political actions, often without substantiated evidence. It demonstrated how narratives, such as Trump potentially issuing a new stimulus check, gain traction online despite experts deeming such claims unlikely. On the other hand, Kamala Harris’s campaign team also came through with ways to gain traction and seem appealing to their voting demographic through social media. It is expressed in an article written by NBC News, stating, “As the Democratic National Convention kicks off Monday in Chicago, the presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris has created a bilingual WhatsApp channel targeting Latino voters…WhatsApp is an encrypted messaging app used globally to communicate across borders for free, making it ideal for U.S. Latino families looking to stay in touch with relatives in Latin America, in the States, and elsewhere.” This shows how Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign initiative to leverage WhatsApp, a widely used encrypted messaging platform, to engage Latino voters. By creating a bilingual channel, the campaign demonstrates an understanding of the cultural and practical significance of WhatsApp within Hispanic communities. The platform is not only a preferred method for U.S. Latino families to communicate with relatives in Latin America and beyond but also serves as a bridge across generational divides. This strategy is particularly effective in catering to both older and younger demographics. This approach underscores the Harris campaign’s commitment to cultural resonance, recognizing the role of digital platforms like WhatsApp as central to communications, identity, and community building in Hispanic households.
Evolving Priorities of Hispanic Voters in the 2024 Election
The 2024 election priorities of Hispanic voters reflect a shift away from a singular focus on immigration toward a broader set of concerns, including healthcare, the economy, and education. This shift underscores the growing diversity within the Hispanic electorate, encompassing generational, socioeconomic, and geographic divides. An LBJ School of Public Affairs study stated, “Using an open-ended question format to capture the most pressing issues, the researchers observed trends over time in shifting priorities… The research points to generational differences in issue prioritization. While older voters still place a high priority on immigration due to stronger ties to their countries of origin, younger Latino voters, who are more likely to be born in the U.S., are increasingly concerned about healthcare.” This addresses many priorities that will be essential for future candidates seeking to build coalitions within the Hispanic community. Campaigns that fail to engage on issues like healthcare and economic equity risk alienating significant portions of this increasingly influential voter base. Hispanic voters are not an inflexible group, and their preferences reflect the unique challenges and opportunities faced by their communities. For example, working-class voters in border security and economic stability, while younger, college-educated voters in urban areas may lean toward progressive policies on healthcare and social justice. As Hispanic voters continue to grow in number and influence, future campaigns must adapt to their evolving priorities, offering comprehensive policy solutions that address both traditional and emerging concerns. Recognizing the diversity within Hispanic communities will be crucial for candidates seeking to build a lasting union and secure electoral victories in the years to come.
References
[1] Clemons, Emily. 2024. “The Shifting Influence of the Hispanic Vote in the 2024 Election.” Resonate. October 4, 2024.
https://www.resonate.com/blog/the-shifting-influence-of-the-hispanic-vote-in-the-2024-election/
[2] Lange, Jason, Bo Erickson, and Brad Heath. 2024. “Trump’s Return to Power Fueled by Hispanic, Working-Class Voter Support.” Reuters. November 6, 2024.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-return-power-fueled-by-hispanic-working-class-voter support-2024-11-06/
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https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
[4] Harrison, Chase, and Khalea Robertson. 2024. “Poll Tracker: The Latino Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.” AS/COA. August 21, 2024.
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-latino-vote-2024-us-presidential-election
[5] Harrison, Chase, and Khalea Robertson. 2024. “Poll Tracker: The Latino Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.” AS/COA. August 21, 2024.
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-latino-vote-2024-us-presidential-election
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[8] Wittes, Tamara. 2017. “Trump’s ‘America First’ Is America the Small.” Brookings. June 2, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-america-first-is-america-the-small/
[9] Harris, Kamala . 2024. “A NEW WAY FORWARD for the MIDDLE CLASS a Plan to Lower Costs and Create an Opportunity Economy.”
https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf
[10] UnidosUS. 2024. “Latino Vote Series Part 1: Economic and Pocketbook Issues Influencing Hispanic Voter Perspectives.” UnidosUS. August 23, 2024.
https://unidosus.org/publications/latino-vote-series-part-1-economic-and-pocketbook-issues-influ encing-hispanic-voter-perspectives/
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[13] Atske, Sara. 2024. “In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters’ Preferences Mirror 2020.” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. September 24, 2024. https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/24/in-tight-u-s-presidential-race-latino voters-preferences-mirror-2020/
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[15] Picchi, Aimee. 2024. “Trump Sent Two Stimulus Checks in His First Term. Here’s What Experts Say about Another Payment.” Cbsnews.com. CBS News. November 20, 2024. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-stimulus-check-2024-what-experts-say/.
[16] Acevedo, Nicole. 2024. “Harris Launches WhatsApp Channel Aimed at Bilingual Latino Voters.” NBC News. August 19, 2024.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/kamala-harris-latino-voters-whatsapp-channel-rcna16717 6
[17] “New UT Study Reveals Priorities Shift: Latino Voters Prioritize Healthcare and Economy over Immigration.” 2024. LBJ School of Public Affairs. UT Drupal Kit version 3. September 26, 2024.
https://lbj.utexas.edu/new-ut-study-reveals-priorities-shift-latino-voters-prioritize-healthcare-and-economy-over
Participants:
Written by Isabella Vallejo
Edited by Gregory Martinez
